Polymarkets: Doombetting on the End of the World

  • February 19, 2026   Estimated reading time: 2 min read
  • Crypto

Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction platform created in 2020 in Manhattan, NY. It's been banned in countries that still have a basis in law, but not America, of course, because Donald Trump said so and that is America's only basis for law at the moment.

Plus, Donald Trump, Jr. is an "advisor" which is really all you need to know, but it's a crypto-based future-forecasting site that allows you to bet on literally anything. And that's the problem.

I can't think of a better way to normalize the idea of Americans being grabbed off the streets and shuttled to a South American gulag than adding the odds to a betting platform. Wars. Epstein file predictions. Comet strikes. Heat waves, tornados, earthquakes. It's all in there. What next?

Polymarket and Kalshi - the two biggest companies claim they are not "gambling" despite record monthly trading volumes over $13.5 billion (43 million transactions) according to a report by Dune and Keyrock from November 2025. They work like gambling sites. You set up an account, transfer money or crypto, then buy shares in your predicted outcome.

Polymarket's been banned in a variety of states which do not allow gambling and a variety of countries – again, mostly for specific violations of betting vs forecasting. Or the fact that most bypass state taxes or federal regulation by operating offshore.

If it doesn't feel like gambling, or meet the strict legal standard, the losses sure feel like regular gambling. Approximately 70% of Polymarket's 1.7 million+ addresses have recorded losses with some individual traders reporting massive losses. Bottom-tier users on these platforms can lose up to 44% of their wagered money in three months, which is higher than sports betting.

Huge companies are behind this ever-expanding attention economy filled with any digital transaction product imaginable to separate you from your money – while invading your privacy, mining your data, and making you less secure.

We are here to be the change we want to see in the world, not to sit on the sidelines placing bets on it's demise.

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